Het eerste kwartaal van het nieuwe jaar zit er weer op en op de AEX na, lieten de aandelenbeurzen mooie rendementen zien. Of de markten verder op zullen lopen in de rest van het jaar is natuurlijk de vraag. De Chairman en CEO van Fairfax Financial Holdings (TSE: FFH) Prem Watsa schreef in het jaarverslag:
"Total debt (private and government) as a percentage of
GDP in the U.S., Europe and the U.K. are at very high levels, thus limiting the options available to governments.
Deleveraging in the private sector has only just begun. In spite of the significant deficit spending in the U.S. and
Europe, high levels of unemployment prevail in both areas and economic growth continues to be very tepid. In
fact, Europe and the U.K. appear to be heading for another recession. The markets are ignoring this as they believe
the Fed and the European Central Bank will bail us out – again! ... In spite of QE1, QE2 and recently QE3, the economic fundamentals remain weak while
stock markets and bond markets are back to near record levels, leading Gary Shilling, one of the best economists we know, to call this “the grand disconnect”. This “disconnect” or gap will be closed by either economic fundamentals rising to meet the financial markets or the markets coming down to meet the fundamentals."